The Eastern Mediterranean needs a project-based compact that separates immediate cooperation on maritime safety, energy and connectivity from disputes that require longer political negotiation, while ensuring that practical gains do not prejudice legal positions.
• The policy challenge crosses institutional and regional boundaries.
• Evidence must be connected to measurable strategic choices.
• Trusted partnerships remain essential to European resilience.
• Clear responsibility is the foundation of credible implementation.
Executive judgement
The Eastern Mediterranean needs a project-based compact that separates immediate cooperation on maritime safety, energy and connectivity from disputes that require longer political negotiation, while ensuring that practical gains do not prejudice legal positions.
Key findings
- Regional escalation can disrupt energy, shipping, airspace and migration management simultaneously.
- Practical projects can create incentives for restraint when they are legally neutral and transparently governed.
- Energy cooperation should include grids, storage, efficiency and infrastructure security rather than depend on a single export concept.
- A durable framework needs structured participation from governments, the EU, commercial operators and affected communities.
A region of connected exposure
The Eastern Mediterranean links European security to Middle Eastern conflict, maritime commerce, energy systems and climate pressure. Policy is often organised around separate files even when a single escalation affects them together. A compact should begin with a shared risk register covering navigation, airspace, ports, cables, energy facilities, emergency response and uncontrolled displacement.
Cooperation without prejudice
Many politically useful projects fail because participants fear that technical cooperation will be interpreted as concession on sovereignty or maritime claims. Agreements should state explicitly that participation does not alter legal positions. This allows joint search and rescue, pollution response, cable protection, grid planning and crisis communication to proceed while formal disputes remain subject to established diplomatic and legal channels.
A balanced economic offer
Energy should be treated as a system of generation, grids, storage, efficiency, shipping and industrial demand. Projects should be selected for resilience and mutual benefit, with transparent procurement and local economic participation. The EU can add value through finance, standards, technical expertise and a predictable link to the wider Pact for the Mediterranean.
Policy recommendations
- Launch an Eastern Mediterranean risk register and annual civil-protection exercise.
- Create legally neutral working groups on cables, grids, search and rescue and port security.
- Use shared transparency standards for cross-border energy and infrastructure projects.
- Establish a standing regional crisis-communication network supported by the EU.
- Publish annual delivery results under the Pact for the Mediterranean.
Indicators to watch
- Maritime incident frequency
- Cross-border project delivery
- Crisis-communication use
- Infrastructure outage duration
Sources and method
This publication distinguishes verified institutional evidence from CERAX interpretation and forward-looking judgement. Principal public sources:
Recommended citation
Cite this publication
CERAX Research Directorate (2026). An Eastern Mediterranean Compact for Security, Energy and Connectivity. CERAX - European Organisation for Strategic Policy.