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CERAX Strategic Outlook 2027: Europe in an Age of Contested Interdependence
Risks, choices and scenarios for European policy in the year ahead.
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Policy Paper
European Defence Readiness 2030: From Spending Pledges to Deployable Capability
Europe's defence credibility will be determined less by announced expenditure than by whether governments can field interoperable formations, replenish stocks, protect enabling infrastructure and sustain readiness through a prolonged crisis.
Latest analysisView all analysis →
Open Strategic Autonomy: Reducing Critical Dependencies Without Closing EuropeAugust 26, 2026 · Europe›
Beyond Ceasefire: Designing Credible Security Guarantees for UkraineAugust 24, 2026 · Eurasia›Strategic regions
Strategic AnalysisEurope’s Energy Security After the 2026 Middle East Supply ShockThe 2026 supply shock demonstrates that energy resilience cannot be managed commodity by commodity: Europe needs joint stress tests, flexible demand, infrastructure repair capacity and producer-consumer diplomacy across gas, power, shipping and fertiliser systems.▣ Aug 24, 2026 Read more →
Strategic BriefRed Sea Shipping: From Rerouting to Persistent Strategic RiskRed Sea insecurity should now be treated as a persistent structural exposure rather than a temporary shipping disruption; European policy must integrate maritime security, seafarer protection, insurance, ports and supply-chain continuity.▣ Aug 23, 2026 Read more →
Policy PaperEurope’s AI Governance Test: From Rulemaking to Trusted DeploymentEurope's AI advantage will not come from regulation alone; it will come from turning clear obligations into trusted deployment, competent supervision, usable standards and faster adoption in public services and productive industry.▣ Aug 18, 2026 Read more →
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Featured publication
CERAX Strategic Outlook 2027
Risks, choices and scenarios for European policy in the year ahead.
Europe enters 2027 with more instruments but less strategic time: success will depend on connecting defence, economic security, technology, energy and diplomacy into a coherent practice of governing interdependence.
Read full paper →Latest publicationsView all →
European Defence Readiness 2030
Open Strategic Autonomy
Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Europe’s Energy Security
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European Defence Readiness 2030: From SpendingPublic Event · Brussels, Belgium→Red Sea Corridor Resilience: Shipping, InsurancePolicy Roundtable · Rome, Italy→View all events →Current Dialogue Agenda
AI Act ImplementationStrategic Forum • 20 August 2026View programme →EU–GCC Security AgendaPolicy Roundtable • 8 August 2026View programme →Browse all dialogues →
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